Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers Football Preview

The smell of desperation, the scent of two teams bleeding and agitated, will be strong and undeniable this weekend at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. Two teams that have had nothing to cheer about in recent weeks need to get back on the beam and revive their respective seasons.

With the Indiana Hoosiers now sitting at 4-3, time is running out for Coach Bill Lynch’s team to grab the more winnable Big Ten games on the season slate. If the Hoosiers can’t upend the Northwestern Wildcats this week, they’ll almost certainly have to beat both Penn State and Purdue in the final two weeks to become bowl eligible. That’s because the Northwestern game is followed by dates with Iowa and Wisconsin. Deciding not to show up for a contest against Illinois was a very bad idea.

How can Indiana reverse its plummeting fortunes and grab its fifth win of the season on the final Saturday of October? Patience and resilience need to emerge for the home team.

The Hoosiers are not going to prevent Northwestern from getting yards. Bill Lynch’s defense needs to shut down the big play, and when Northwestern’s offense gets into the red zone, Indiana has to force a bunch of field goals. Northwestern kicker Stefan Demos is very inconsistent, but the bigger point is that Indiana can’t give up seven points on a repeated basis. By forcing four or five field goals, IU can hold Northwestern to under 30 points, and that will allow talented Hoosier quarterback Ben Chappell to win the game with a first-class performance. If the Indiana defense gives up touchdowns rather than field goals, Northwestern could very well score 42 points and put this game out of reach. The Hoosiers simply have to be above-average on third downs, particularly on defense, if they want to have a good chance to win this weekend.

On the other side of the Big Ten divide, the outlook is also getting worse and worse for Northwestern, as is the case at Indiana. The Wildcats can become bowl-eligible with a win here, but Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s club has to be kicking itself after losing two straight games at home, most recently to Michigan State after blowing a 17-0 first-half lead. Northwestern’s continued penchant for dumb penalties and a general lack of discipline is coming back to kill the Wildcats. They have to improve if they want a really good bowl bid.

More specifically, the Wildcats have to eliminate penalties and mental errors. Northwestern has littered the field with yellow laundry all season long, and not with five-yard penalties. The boys from Evanston, Illinois, are committing multiple illegal-block and chop-block penalties in every game, and they’re putting too much of a strain on quarterback Dan Persa by forcing their gifted signal caller to overcome 2nd-and-20 situations. The steady stream of Northwestern penalties is also wiping out a lot of good plays this team makes as well. Northwestern athletes are supposed to be educated and alert, but there’s been a lack of focus on the gridiron this year for a team that should be 6-1 instead of 5-2. The loss to Michigan State was one thing; the earlier loss to a banged-up Purdue team was just not acceptable. If Northwestern doesn’t clean up its act, Indiana can definitely steal this game.

Two teams, two downward trajectories, two increasingly desperate pursuits of bowl eligibility. Indiana and Northwestern need to re-commit themselves to excellence; the loser of this game will see its hopes for 2010 evaporate into a Midwestern afternoon.

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