NCAA Tournament Preview: Michigan will lean on coaching against dangerous Clemson squad

Michigan vs Clemson - Time and TV: Thurs., March 19, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

 
Now that Michigan has returned to the NCAA Tournament after 11 years away from the event, the Wolverines will have to work hard to win their first-round game. Short on athleticism but long on confidence, the Maize and Blue hope that their main mastermind will make the difference on Thursday evening in Kansas City.
 
If athleticism is the topic in question, Clemson enjoys a substantial advantage over Michigan in the West Region's 7-10 game. The athletes from Ann Arbor can't keep up in a track meet against the high-octane Tigers, who are far more explosive and boast quality depth on their bench. Wolverine big man DeShawn Sims is in for a battle against Clemson's Trevor Booker (15 points and 10 rebounds per game), the single most dyanmic player on the floor in this first-round throwdown. Sims might be able to take Booker away from the basket on offense, but Clemson will enjoy an even more pronounced edge by simply feeding Booker in the low post. This game's most anticipated one-on-one battle falls in the Tigers' favor, at least if pure talent is the measure of choice. And if Booker ever needs a breather, Clemson can go to Raymond Sykes for equally active defense and rebounding. Sims doesn't have a backup of appreciable caliber.
 
The perimeter battle also tilts to Clemson as a matter of raw skill. Manny Harris can more than hold his own for the No. 10 seed, but K.C. Rivers (14 points and 6 boards per game) gives the No. 7 Tigers a presence that can cancel out Harris on the floor. As is the case in the Sims-Booker matchup, Rivers has a better supporting cast than his Michigan counterpart. The fifth-place team in the Atlantic Coast Conference can throw Terrence Oglesby, a super sniper, and high-energy guard Demontez Stitt (9 points per game) at the Maize and Blue. Michigan's role players, such as Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, aren't nearly as quick or powerful as the kids from Clemson. In an up-tempo competition dominated by thoroughbreds, the Tigers would rule the day.

This analysis of player matchups leads to one simple but obvious conclusion: Coaching is the area in which Michigan can, and must, prevail.
 
Clemson coach Oliver Purnell has certainly improved Clemson since he arrived in South Carolina in 2003. Once a cellar-dweller in the ACC, the Tigers are now an upper-division team in one of America's best basketball leagues. As was the case in his previous coaching stops--at Radford, Old Dominion, and Dayton--Purnell left a program better than he found it, a clear sign of a worthy coach.
 
With that said, however, the NCAA Tournament represents the big time, a grand stage when the very best sideline bosses rise to the top. As credentialed as Purnell might be, he can't hold a candle to Michigan's John Beilein.
 
For all of Purnell's many considerable achievements, the Clemson coach has never won an NCAA Tournament game, and has presided over late-season fades in recent years. Purnell had a No. 4 seed in 2003 at Dayton, but the Flyers were grounded by 13th-seeded Tulsa in the first round, 84-71. Last year, Clemson took a No. 5 seed into the Big Dance against a 12 seed from Villanova, only to falter down the stetch and drop a 75-69 decision.

What's even more worrisome for the sons of South Carolina is the fact that Purnell's last three Clemson teams have all followed similar trajectories: Start strong, struggle late. The 2007 Tigers began the year 17-0 but then fell out of NCAA Tournament consideration, ending up in the NIT. Last year's team won its first 10 games but then lost five of its last 13 ACC regular-season contests. This year's Clemson club started 16-0, but has now lost six of its last 10, including a bad defeat in the first round of the ACC Tournament to league doormat Georgia Tech. Make no mistake--Clemson basketball has some very nice problems to deal with these days, but it remains that the Tigers don't inspire confidence once they play in tournament-style situations.
 
Beilein, on the other hand, hasn't just improved the schools he's led over the years (Canisius, Richmond and West Virginia before arriving in Ann Arbor); he's actually won NCAA Tournament games. In 1998, a Beilein-coached Richmond team sprung a massive upset, as the 14th-seeded Spiders stunned third-seeded South Carolina. At West Virginia, Beilein took two teams to the Sweet 16, and had the Mountaineers just a basket or two (against Louisville) from reaching the 2005 Final Four as a No. 7 seed. After finding ways to beat Duke and UCLA this season, and then make Connecticut sweat, Beilein has only increased his standing in the college basketball world. The combination of a 1-3-1 zone defense and an intricate offense has enabled Beilein to outscheme and outsmart opposing coaches in the one-and-done pressure cooker of March Madness. This is why Michigan has a definite chance to upend its more talented opponent.
 
The Wolverines aren't as athletic as Clemson, but they can certainly deploy their personnel more effectively. Michigan can find even more encouragement from the realization that it's much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed a game up. The Tigers would thrive in a 94-foot game, but the Wolverines stand to benefit from a slowdown slugfest. If Beilein's zone can frustrate Booker, and the high-energy Tigers find themselves thinking too much against Michigan's more tactically-based approach, it would be very easy to envision Clemson unraveling, while the likes of Novak and Douglass, plus Laval Lucas-Perry, exploit the Tigers' defense for open looks at the basket.
 
Clemson will count on the studs it has in its stable. Michigan will rely on its clever and resourceful coach. Who will conquer Kansas City on the first night of the 2009 NCAA Tournament? The flow of this game will tell you all you need to know.

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