Michigan's NCAA hopes on life support after devastating loss at Iowa

Statistics and scorelines sometimes tell the story of games and seasons that rise or fall in the crucible of late-February pressure. On other occasions, however, a few visual snapshots manage to encapsulate the agony and ecstasy of a college basketball campaign. Those scenes were abundant on a significant Sunday afternoon in Iowa City.
 
The Michigan Wolverines knew that their encounter with the Iowa Hawkeyes was a must-win proposition. No team on the negative side of the NCAA bubble can lose to a "downmarket" conference opponent in the stretch run of a season. The Maize and Blue needed to finish 10-8 in the conference to feel even somewhat comfortable about their hopes for an at-large slot in the field of 65. Therefore, a closing stretch of Purdue, at Wisconsin, and at Minnesota (before the Big Ten Tournament) had to be preceded by a win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Losing was not an option for John Beilein's squad, and with just a minute left in regulation, an undeniably shaky effort from the Wolverines nevertheless produced a 56-52 lead and the prospect of continued life in Bubbleville.
 
Then came the kinds of moments that give coaches sleepless nights and haunted dreams. In a few fatal minutes, a Michigan win--and an improved postseason outlook--vanished into the Iowa evening.
 
The first snapshot of the Wolverines' spectacular collapse came when UM guard Manny Harris, the team's most important player, found a driving lane with just under 30 seconds left and the Wolverines up by only two, at 56-54. Seeing an open path to the basket, Harris got within four feet of the rim but then--in a misguided attempt to draw a foul--chose to throw his body toward an Iowa defender when an easy layup was available. Had Harris continued to float to the basket in a normal manner, his shot would not have been contested, but because he wanted to create body contact, he wound up releasing a difficult and overly hard shot that clanged off the rim. That was the first lethal lapse in a nightmarish Michigan minute, the last one of regulation.

The second glimpse of the Wolverines' freefall came just a second after Harris's missed shot. UM center DeShawn Sims, who had actually been Beilein's most reliable player over the course of the previous few minutes, fouled Iowa's Matt Gatens in a well-intentioned but clearly tardy attempt to snag an offensive rebound with 25.5 seconds left. The foul not only enabled the Hawkeyes to tie the game at the foul line; it put a 92-percent free throw shooter at the charity stripe. Gatens had to endure an extended delay (and the officials' act of taking the ball out of his hands at the line), but the calm sharpshooting freshman maintained his focus and hit both ends of the one-and-one to knot this nailbiter at 56-apiece.
 
As much as Michigan had faltered in allowing Iowa to tie the game, the Wolverines' biggest breakdown was still to come.
 
In the final possession of regulation, Michigan--after a timeout--flatly lost track of the game clock. Three guards passed the basketball around the perimeter, only for Harris to receive a pass roughly 30 feet from the tin with about 2.5 seconds left on the clock. Harris hoisted a long desperation three that badly missed, and a disbelieving Beilein could only put his hands on the sides of his head. Yes, with a huge victory still in sight, Michigan lost all sense of time after its coach drew up a specific set play in the final 30 seconds of regulation. That's how a talented team loses hold of its NCAA aspirations.
 
The overtime felt like a foregone conclusion, as Iowa's confidence soared while Michigan (and especially Harris, who was benched midway through OT) plummeted into a sea of rushed threes that rarely even drew iron. Gatens and teammate Jake Kelly, who scored a game-high 21 points, relentlessly attacked Michigan's flat-footed defense to create a 7-0 run in the first 2:12 of the extra period. As a bewildered Beilein called timeout at the 2:48 mark of OT, the homestanding Hawkeyes not only possessed a 63-56 lead; they owned runaway momentum and the knowledge that their opponent had cracked under pressure. Nothing that happened in the first half of the overtime stanza would fundamentally change in the second, and when the clock struck triple-zero for the second time in a five-minute span, Iowa claimed a 70-60 victory that was as much the product of Michigan miscues as it was the result of the Hawks' considerable heart.

Yes, the home team played with maximum effort despite the fact that its starting guard had been sidelined by an injury; with that having been said, however, this outcome could not have emerged without a series of mental breakdowns by a team that will now have to thread the needle to reach the Big Dance.
 
Perhaps Michigan can win just two of its next three games to finish at 9-9 in the league, but if that happens, the Wolverines must win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to punch their ticket to the NCAAs. One way or another, Michigan must win four of its next five games to feel good about its postseason chances. Given this crippling loss in Iowa City, that's not a likely scenario.
 
The Wolverines might eventually lick their wounds and learn how to string together a number of solid performances, but whether they do so or not, one thing's undeniably clear at this late hour: They've run out of any margin for error. If John Beilein and his coaching staff have to settle for an NIT bid on Selection Sunday, they'll look at this stomach-punch setback in Iowa City as the game that defined their season more than any other.

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