NCAA National Championship Game Preview: Michigan State must own the glass in title tilt against North Carolina

 
Pat Riley didn't play at Michigan State or North Carolina, but the Kentucky star and NBA icon helped popularize a simple saying that will decide the national championship of college basketball.
 
Riley's years as coach of the Los Angeles Lakers affirmed the importance of grabbing loose balls and securing extra possessions. In a sport where more than 100 shots are taken in almost every game, it's usually significant when one team can acquire 10 or 15 extra looks at the basket. This simple but important piece of roundball wisdom led Riley to use a mantra that will apply to Monday night's NCAA championship game: "No rebounds, no rings."
 
One could view perimeter shooting, free-throw shooting, and foul trouble as significant factors in the upcoming collision between Tom Izzo's Spartans and Roy Williams' Tar Heels at Ford Field in Detroit. When the Big Ten-ACC Challenge repeats itself in the very same building where Carolina crushed Sparty in December, shooting percentages and foul totals will have a say in deciding the team that cuts down the nets in Motown. Yet, no honest discussion of MSU-UNC II can begin or end without mention of the game's foremost key: rebounding.
 
It's just that simple: The team that can become the chairman of the boards will rule the roost at the end of this NCAA Tournament.

Lots of secondary storylines will be written when State and Carolina lock horns before more than 72,000 fans, most of them cheering for the guys in green jerseys. It's obvious that memorable plays and emotional turning points will shape the counters of a king-sized confrontation. Pundits, scribes and coaches--everyone who has descended on Detroit for a sport's biggest annual gathering--will reference many topics when Monday night's game enters the history books. In the end, however, it will all come back to the glass, and who can clean it up more consistently, particularly at crunch time.
 
North Carolina comfortably defeated Villanova in Saturday's second national semifinal, but not without cause for concern heading into Monday night's title fight. Despite their 14-point margin of victory against Jay Wright's roster, the ACC regular-season champions had an Achilles (Tar) Heel: rebounding. Villanova couldn't hit the side of a barn, but the Wildcats certainly attacked the offensive glass against Carolina by snaring 22 offensive boards, twenty-two. Yes, you have to miss a ton of shots to be able to rebound a lot of shots, but it's still alarming that an opponent could get so many second chances against a tall and active frontline of Tyler Hansbrough, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and Tyler Zeller. Villanova was certainly active and rugged in the fight for rebounds, but the Cats lacked a tall or imposing presence who could dominate in the lane. Giving up offensive rebounds to Connecticut is one thing; getting hammered on the glass by Villanova is quite another matter.
 
This startling inability to protect its own backboard leaves Carolina in need of major "board-room" consultation heading into a showdown with State. If death and taxes are the two unavoidable realities of life, Michigan State's rebounding excellence could be mentioned as a third unchanging aspect of human existence. Even though MSU lacked UConn's imposing physical specimens, the Spartans played the Huskies to a virtual tie on the boards in Saturday's other national semifinal. Unofficial statistics posted immediately after Sparty's win over Connecticut showed the Huskies with a 41-40 edge on the glass. That was a win for Tom Izzo's team, which couldn't have expected to post a typical double-digit rebounding edge against the likes of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson. When North Carolina stares down the Spartans for a second time this season, everyone on the Michigan State roster will be licking his chops when rebounds are there for the taking.
 
Just how will this rebounding battle be won? When one key towers over other considerations, it's worth exploring in greater detail.
 
The fascinating aspect of this State-Carolina rematch is that a healthier, deeper MSU club will be able to match the Tar Heels' depth, unlike the December game in which Goran Suton was out and Raymar Morgan wasn't the beast who helped take down Connecticut on Saturday. On the night of April 6, 2009, Izzo will be able to throw bodies on the floor at the same rate Roy Williams normally does.

If Williams puts in Davis for Thompson, Izzo can put Marquise Gray in for Suton.
 
If "Tar Heel Roy" rushes in Zeller, "Spartan Tom" can insert Draymond Green or even Idong Ibok.
 
In the backcourt, Carolina subs Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew can be exceeded by MSU's trio of Durrell Summers, Korie Lucious, and Chris Allen.
 
All in all, a Carolina team that usually wears down opponents with frequent substitutions will find it difficult to take away Michigan State's legs. This means that the Spartans might be able to jump for rebounds with considerable energy in the latter stages of this game. Carolina often plays the first half to establish tempo and set up the second half, but Izzo has been doing the same thing in this NCAA Tournament, particularly against Louisville and Connecticut. MSU's deeper bench has enabled the Spartans to outlast and outwork a pair of opponents who began to crack midway through the second half. That's a typical North Carolina M.O. as well. It makes rebounding an even more intriguing discussion piece on Monday night.
 
In one relevant sense, these two teams are opposites. Michigan State is more purely muscular, and would be happy to have a grinding, slowdown game with a lower score. Carolina has jump-out-of-the-building athletes (MSU has Summers and Morgan, but not a full roster of thoroughbreds the way UNC does) who crave a fast pace with relentless up-and-down action. Once that difference is factored into the equation, however, these clubs are more similar than one might initially think.      
 
Both teams have world-class coaches, deep benches, point guards who are carrying most of the workload (Kalin Lucas for State, Ty Lawson for Carolina), gang-rebounding philosophies, and inside-outside balance, among other things. Perhaps the rebounding war will come down to an unexpected clash between Frasor (6 offensive rebounds for UNC against Villanova) and Summers on the wings. Maybe the battle of the boards will come into focus when lunch-pail warriors Suton and Delvon Roe confront Thompson and Davis, two highly-talented Heels with explosive vertical leaping ability. Hansbrough and Morgan could find themselves immersed in a mano-a-mano matchup of epic proportions.
 
The possibilities are endless, and equally mouth-watering.
 
It's too much to contemplate, quite frankly.
 
All one can do at this point of a season, when two great teams have only one and a half days of preparation time for the biggest game of their lives, is to rest up and wait for the action to unfold.
 
Who will grab the extra rebounds, the 50-50 balls, and the second-change points that can turn momentum on a dime? Who will win the scramble situations and accumulate more of the hustle plays coaches demand from their players?
 
No rebounds, no rings. That's the first, last and foremost message for Michigan State (and for North Carolina) as a championship hangs in the balance.

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