Wisconsin moves closer to NCAA lock status with vital win over Michigan

It was no idle coincidence that the Wisconsin Badgers played the Michigan Wolverines on the first day of March. The high-stakes Big Ten battle between the two teams had all the urgency of college basketball's most maddening month. Placed in a pressure-cooker situation, these two bubble residents knew that the better playmakers in the final minutes would almost surely decide the outcome.
 
When the scoreboard hit triple-zero at the Kohl Center, it turned out that the winner of this crucial contest was decided not by grand accomplishments, but by the plays that weren't made. In a tense and nerve-filled second half, the Badgers used their combination of rugged defense and high basketball IQ to hold off the Wolverines, 60-55. 
 
Before assessing the significance of this five-point triumph, one must explain why Bo Ryan's roster was able to drop the Maize and Blue back to eighth place in the conference.

Very simply, the Badgers--who missed five free throws in the final 2:30 of regulation, six if you count the back end of a one-and-one that never arrived--were able to prevail on the strength of their defense. After allowing 34 points to a confident-shooting bunch of Wolverines in the first half, UW cranked up the energy at the defensive end to turn this game from a high-60s affair to a high-50s grinder more suited to Wisconsin's style and tempo. The slower-paced and lower-scoring second half was in many was a product of the defense-first emphasis that defines the Gospel According to Bo. However, it would also be fair to say that the decreased offensive numbers reflected the pressure surrounding this contest. These two battle-tested ballclubs were quite aware of the importance of Sunday's showdown, so in the latter stages of action, the value of each possession caused everyone on the court to shoot the ball with a little less confidence and fluidity. Tightness and tension filled the packed house in Madison; great would be the playmaker who could rise above the moment and hit huge shots.
 
Ultimately, such a shotmaker never arrived. Given that scenario, the lower-scoring Badgers stood to gain, and sure enough, they did.
 
The smartest decision Wisconsin made in the final few minutes--as Michigan failed to capitalize on UW's missed foul shots--was to force Wolverine center DeShawn Sims to beat them from long range. Zack Novak and especially Stu Douglass are what one would call true snipers, the catch-and-shoot marksmen who--if given a clean look--have a great chance of knocking down a game-tying three. When leading by precarious 55-52 and (later) 56-52 margins in the final 50 seconds of regulation, Wisconsin prevented Novak or Douglass from finding space beyond the arc. Michigan found tough sledding inside the lane, and wound up with Sims having to beat the Badgers beyond the arc. Yes, Sims's looks were decent, but in late-game situations, the difference between primary and secondary options matters on certain kinds of plays. Sims was an okay option for Michigan--especially in light of his dazzling performance on Thursday versus Purdue--but Wisconsin was smart enough and skilled enough to prevent coach John Beilein from getting UM's snipers a three-point chance. That small but real difference loomed large in the final minute of play, and when Sims couldn't knock down his tries for a trifecta, the Badgers--free throw misses and all--were able to cross the finish line first.

Here's what this win means for Wisconsin. The fourth-place tie (with Penn State) is nice, but what really matters is the 9-7 conference record the Badgers now possess. UW obviously hopes to win on Wednesday at Minnesota, but even if the Golden Gophers ruin their plans, a home game against Indiana gives Bo's boys a great chance to snag a 10-8 record in the conference. Penn State is likely to reach 10-8, but as of right now, Wisconsin has the best chance among the league's "middle five" (UW, PSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State) of attaining a winning conference record, and with it, a certain invitation to the NCAA Tournament.
 
Yes, it felt like March as Wisconsin held off Michigan, putting the Wolverines squarely on the bubble. How appropriate, then, that today's victory will enable the Badgers to play deep into March... at an NCAA Tournament site that will be announced on Selection Sunday.

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