Big Ten basketball update: Expect the Expected

While the non-conference portion of the season had surprises left and right for the majority of the country, the Big Ten was not in that category. The two teams lauded as favorites by everyone heading into the season, Wisconsin and Ohio State, are still head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. The projected bottom three teams—Northwestern, Iowa, and Minnesota—are still the cellar dwellers of the league. Then spots 3-7 are up for grabs between the teams that were predicted to finish in the middle-of-the-pack: Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois. And then there’s Penn State, a team that was in-between “middle of the pack” and “rounding out the league” in the preseason, and still seem that way. In other words, the Big Ten has been extremely predictable in what has been an unpredictable season overall.

Since this is the first column of the season, I’m going to go through the conference, team-by-team, and recap their season to date and discuss what they need to do in 2007 to improve their chances in Big Ten play. Teams are listed in order of how I think they will finish.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have been one of the best teams in the country and look like a legitimate Final Four contender. They are 13-1 and ranked #4 in the country. They have a slew of quality wins, including victories over Florida State, Pittsburgh, Marquette, and Winthrop. Their lone loss was on a neutral court to Missouri State by two. If they don’t fall apart in conference play like they did last season, look out.

What They Need in 2007: A consistent scoring option besides All-American Alando Tucker. Kammron Taylor and Brian Butch have shown the ability to have big games and ease the burden off of Tucker. However, neither has been overly consistent, sometimes leaving the offense one-dimensional. If one of them steps up to get 14-17 points per game, the Badgers will be even more dangerous.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have a gaudy record (10-2) and ranking (#6), but they don’t have an overly impressive resume when looking at who they have beaten. Their best wins are over mediocre Iowa State and Cincinnati teams, and they have lost by a combined 35 points when they have gone up against North Carolina and Florida.They haven’t shown the ability to beat good teams just yet.

What They Need in 2007: A healthy Greg Oden. The freshman phenom has not been the world-beater everyone expected, especially on the offensive end. . He is very good on the defensive end and has shown ability offensively, but he lacks post moves and was dominated by Florida’s frontline. Part of the reason for the offensive struggles could be attributed to his injured right wrist. If he gets fully healthy and is able to control the paint, the Buckeyes could be a Final Four contender.

Illinois: The Fighting Illini, expected to have somewhat of a down season with the loss of Dee Brown and James Augustine, have played very well. They have been hampered with injuries to Jamar Smith and Brian Randle, but are still 11-2.The two losses were to Maryland and Arizona, but they looked good in both losses. They have wins at Bradley and at Missouri, victories that could look better as the season goes on.

What They Need in 2007:Consistent shooting from the perimeter players. The Illini have not shot the ball very well so far this season, hitting shots at a 47% clip from inside the arc and 40% from behind the arc. However, those numbers are skewed by Jamar Smith’s 46% and Trent Meachem’s 50% percentage from three-point range. The other guards, Chester Frazier, Rich McBride, and Calvin Brock, have struggled both inside and outside the arc. They are shooting a combined 35% from three-point range.

Michigan: The Wolverines look like they will have the same story as the Michigan teams of years prior. They have a good record, 12-2, but don’t have any marquee wins and have looked awful in their only two games against decent opponents. Their best victory is over Davidson, and have lost by a combined 34 points to North Carolina State and UCLA. Moreover, they have only one road win, against Miami ( Ohio). Will this team find a way to beat good clubs on the road in the Big Ten season?

What They Need in 2007: To take better care of the ball. The Wolverines don’t have a true point guard in their starting lineup, and it shows. They have only one more assist than turnovers and had 9 assists to 23 turnovers in their loss to UCLA. Dion Harris is more of a natural scorer but is forced to play the lead guard spot for the Wolverines due to Jerret Smith’s shooting struggles. Moreover, the Wolverines need to figure out how to shoot the three. They shoot only 33 percent from behind the arc.

Michigan State: The Spartans have played surprisingly well so far this season, with a 12-2 record and a #25 ranking in the coaches’ poll. They were not expected to be this good this early after the losses of Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown, and Paul Davis. Their two losses were by a combined 9 points to Boston College and Maryland, and they own wins over Texas and Bradley. They have been hurt by injuries throughout the season, including two of their top four scorers in Maurice Joseph and Raymar Morgan.

What They Need in 2007: More scoring options. With a defense that has not allowed more than 65 points all season, it’s the offense that needs work. Drew Neitzel has become the Spartans’ go-to-guy after being a role player last season. However, he is one of only two double-figure scorers—Morgan being the other. With Morgan and Joseph out, the offense needs other players to step up. Goran Suton and Marquise Gray need to provide more production down low.

Indiana: The Hoosiers have been an interesting team this season, sitting at an unimpressive 8-3. They have three losses, but they were to Kentucky, Butler, and Duke—by an average of less than six points per game. Indiana defeated Southern Illinois two weeks ago, and have won three in a row, including that victory. They have not been the prettiest of teams, but new coach Kelvin Sampson is getting the job done so far. If he figures out how to beat good teams on the road, this prediction could be too low.

What They Need in 2007: For D.J. White to dominate. The junior showed flashes of his ability in his first two seasons in Bloomington, but has not consistently dominated the paint nor played to his potential. He has breakout games like the three double-doubles he had, or the 23-point, 9-rebound performance he had against Kentucky. However, he also disappears for some games, like the 8 points he had against Duke, or the 7 he had against Southern Illinois. He needs to become more dominant if the Hoosiers are to compete with the bigger teams in the league.

Purdue: The Boilermakers have already exceeded their win total from last season, currently sitting at 10-3. They have a couple of decent wins, with victories over Virginia, Missouri, and DePaul. However, they have struggled away from home. Purdue was blown out by Georgia Tech and Indiana State, and also lost to Indiana State. It seems like a lot of the teams in this league have trouble beating good teams on the road. That does not bode well for the postseason future that many of these teams have. Purdue is in that category.

What They Need in 2007: Better distribution of the basketball. The Boilermakers have one of the best post players in the country in Carl Landry and a variety of decent scorers on the perimeter. However, their leading assist man dishes out only 2.7 assists per game. They average the same amount of assists as turnovers and have struggled to take care of the ball against teams that pressure the ball. If they don’t pass the ball more, the Boilermakers could be on the wrong side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions have had an up-and-down season at 8-4, with a few more downs than ups, unfortunately. They have understandable losses at Georgia Tech and Seton Hall (even that’s iffy), but they also fell at home to Stony Brook and Southeastern Louisiana, teams that likely aren’t going to win their respective conferences. On the bright side, PSU defeated a couple of quality teams in Bucknell and St. Joseph’s. They are winless on the road, though.

What They Need in 2007: Better guard play. Penn State has one of the best (and one of the most underrated) forward tandems in the country in Geary Claxton and Jamelle Cornley. However, their guards are not up par with the frontcourt. Danny Morrissey is a double-figure scorer, but the production falls off after him. Moreover, the guards don’t take very good care of the basketball, part of the reason why the Nittany Lions have more turnovers than assists. Additionally, the three-point shooting has to go up from 34%. That won’t cut it in Big Ten play.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes are playing as expected—like they lost three starters from a year ago. They are 7-6, but have shown signs of life at points throughout the season. They defeated Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa, Arizona State, and Virginia Tech by four points or less. However, they are not playing good basketball at all. The Big Ten schedule does not do them any favors, either, as they have to go on the road to face the top six teams in my projected rankings. It could be a long winter for Steve Alford.

What They Need in 2007: A third option on offense. Adam Haluska and Tyler Smith are playing very well so far this season, but they have accounted for over half the team’s scoring—not a good sign. Tony Freeman and Justin Johnson have potential on the perimeter, but neither seems capable of consistently getting double-figure points. If they can’t find another scorer, defenses will be able to focus on Haluska and Smith, which would completely destroy the Hawkeyes’ offense.

Northwestern: The Wildcats are 9-3 and have played surprisingly well in the non-conference portion of the season. They have wins over DePaul, Utah, and Miami and have won eight of their last nine. However, Northwestern also has losses at the hands of Cornell and Tennessee Tech—at home. They look improved from last season and could steal a few Big Ten wins in the coming months, but I don’t see them getting past ninth despite their somewhat impressive season so far.

What They Need in 2007: Better offense and more rebounding. The Wildcats, even with nine wins, have had one of the most anemic offenses in Division-1. They have scored 49 points or less four times and have reached 70 points only twice. They average less than 60 points per game. Things could be looking up, though: Northwestern has scored at least 62 points in four straight games. As for rebounding, the Wildcats average just over 26 rebounds per game, and their leading rebounder grabs less than five per game. Part of that could be attributed to the low amount of shots they take, but that won’t cut it against bigger teams.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers are the lone Big Ten team under .500, sitting at 5-8. They lost five in a row earlier in the season, after starting the year 2-0. Their best win is over Arizona State, but they also have losses to Arkansas-Little Rock and Montana. They have won three of their last six, and only lost by four at UNLV, but Minnesota looks like the worst of the lot in the Big Ten. Moreover, the coach they started the season with, Dan Monson, was fired midway through the non-conference season, and replaced with Jim Molinari.

What They Need in 2007: A lot. The Golden Gophers average more turnovers than assists, shoot less than 45% from the field, less than 35% from three-point land, and outside of their top three scorers, no one averages more than 4.8 points per game. Minnesota has a decent trio in Dan Coleman, Spencer Tollackson, and Lawrence McKenzie, but the rest of the team has not shown that they are Big Ten-quality thus far. Molinari has a lot of work to do in order to get this team out of the cellar.