NCAA Tournament Preview: Doubted by many, Illinois gears up for Western Kentucky

Illinois vs Western Kentucky - Time and TV: Thurs., March 19, 9:55 p.m. ET*, CBS
 * = Approximate time. This game starts 30 minutes after the end of Gonzaga-Akron.

The unveiling of the NCAA Tournament bracket always generates fresh speculation about the teams who will fall victim to a dreaded 5-12 upset. The Illinois Fighting Illini hope their number isn't up in 2009.
 
Two years ago, coach Bruce Weber's bunch stood on the other side of the 5-12 divide. After sneaking in the back door of the 2007 NCAA tourney, the 12th-seeded Illini, playing in a familiar Big Ten building--Columbus's Value City Arena--led by 10 with four minutes left before succumbing to fifth-seeded Virginia Tech, 54-52. Fast forward to this Thursday, and the sons of Champaign are now the 5 seed who will try to fend off the No. 12 Sun Belt champion from Western Kentucky.
 
The kids from the town of Bowling Green, Ky., are experienced at pulling off the 5-12 upset. Last year, coach Darrin Horn's hardwood heroes knocked off a fifth seed from Drake University, as Ty Rogers hit a 26-foot heave at the buzzer to give WKU a 101-99 overtime win. This year, Ken McDonald is the new coach for Western Kentucky (Horn departed for South Carolina), but this mid-major still has the same goals and intentions. Illinois will be in for a fight in the night's final game at Portland's Rose Garden.
 
The nickname of the Western Kentucky club brings with it an element of irony. The upstart from the Sun Belt might be called the Hilltoppers, but it's the fifth-seeded Illini who possess the mountainous height in this contest. Even more to the point, Illinois must use that size to come away with a win and dash the dreams of bracket masters who think that this (along with Arizona-Utah) will give the Big Dance its latest incarnation of a 5-12 surprise.

Why are the Illini being viewed as a particularly vulnerable ballclub? Quite simply, it is significant that guard Chester Frazier is highly unlikely to play Thursday evening. Successful postseason basketball teams require glue guys, the kinds of players who won't fill up a stat sheet but will do many of the little things that give form and function to the five men on the floor. Frazier is that man for the Illini, so it's understandable that Western Kentucky is a popular opening-round upset pick for the second straight NCAA Tournament.
 
How, then, will Weber and his braintrust find a way to advance to Saturday's second round? Simple: Play over the top of the not-so-tall Hilltoppers.

Among the players who regularly contribute to WKU's success and gain extended minutes under coach McDonald's rotation, the tallest man is 6-foot-9 post player Jeremy Evans. His averages of 9 points and 6 rebounds per game are a reflection of Evans's commitment to protecting the backboard for a relatively small club. None of the Hilltoppers' other prime performers stand taller than 6-5. This is a dynamic team, a team good enough to upset Louisville earlier in the season on Nov. 30, but it is certainly not gifted with height. Since matchups are so important in one-and-done tournaments, the Illini--even without Frazier, the heartbeat of their roster--have an opponent they can consistently exploit.
 
If the Illini are worried about their ability to score--which became a problem in the 2007 loss to Virginia Tech--they shouldn't be. WKU will be very hard pressed to prevent Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale from getting clean looks at the basket on a consistent basis. Davis and Tisdale might not be powerful or especially muscular, but they play over the top and are extremely adept at creating space for themselves. Davis frees up his shooting hand with his agility, while Tisdale has developed a tried and true baseline hook shot that, like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's skyhook, is virtually unblockable. Illinois should be able to establish and ride certain matchups that will be very unfavorable for the Hilltoppers.
 
The key will emerge when (or if) WKU doubleteams Davis and especially Tisdale, forcing a pass out of the low post. Illinois guard Trent Meacham needs to make himself available for kick-outs to the 3-point arc, while Demetri McCamey will have to shoot the three or drive hard to the basket whenever Western Kentucky collapses on Davis or Tisdale. With smart decisions and good floor spacing, Illinois can score consistently, even without Chester Frazier.

> Check out the 2008 Illinois football preview and all of the 2008 Big Ten football previews here @ Big Ten Fans!

On defense, Illinois' length--with the rangy McCamey and Calvin Brock actively guarding the perimeter--can bother WKU's stellar guards, A.J. Slaughter (16 points, 3 boards, 4 assists per game) and Orlando Mendez-Valdez (14, 4 and 4). At almost every position, Illinois will enjoy a height advantage. The key for the Illini on defense will be to stop dribble penetration and not get caught in screens. As long as Weber's defenders stay in front of their man, they'll be able to force contested shots and gum up the Hilltopper attack.
 
Play over the top of the Hilltoppers at both ends of the floor--it's not a complex plan, but without Chester Frazier, the Illini must acquire the mental toughness needed to implement it. If they do, a 5-12 upset won't materialize, and 2007's heartbreak will turn into 2009's joy for a basketball program that tied for second place in the just-ended Big Ten season.

By Matt Zemek
BigTen-fans.com staff writer

> For more sports writing from Estes, check out his St. Louis Cardinals coverage @ MLBcenter.com!

> Check out the rest of the Big Ten football coverage here at Big Ten Fans!