Big Ten football preview - Week #7

The Big Ten Football season continues this weekend with 5 conference match-ups and a single non-conference game. This weekend features Purdue @ Northwestern, #15 Iowa @ Indiana, Minnesota @ #25 Wisconsin, #1 Ohio State @ Michigan State, #4 Michigan @ Penn State in the ABC Prime Time game, and the Ohio Bobcats @ Illinois. As always, look to Big Ten Fans for your updated Big Ten football scores andstandings throughout the weekend.

Ohio @ Illinois

Ohio Bobcats 3-3 (2-1 MAC) @ Illinois Fighting Illini 2-4 (1-2 Big Ten) - 7 pm

In another match-up of the Big Ten vs. the Mid-American Conference, the Ohio Bobcats will look to be the first MAC member to beat a Big Ten school in the past two years on Saturday. A 6-point underdog, the Bobcats come into the game after snapping a 3-game losing streak last week when the defeated the Western Michigan Broncos 27-20 in Athens, Ohio. That game saw the nation's top punt-returner, redshirt freshman Chris Garrett, return 2 punts for 97 yards including a 88-yard return for a TD in the 1st Quarter of the game.

After a shocking 23-20 win for the Illini @ Michigan State on September 30th, Illinois had a chance to go to 2-1 in the Big Ten as they hosted Indiana last week. But a last-second 33-yard FG by Indiana killed those hopes sending the Illini to their 4th loss of the season in 6 games. The Illini offense has been sparked by the emergence of freshman QB Juice Williams in the past few weeks. A dual threat with both his arm and his legs, Williams has rushed for 40+ yards in 3 consecutive games including a 103 yard performance in the upset of Michigan State. The big knock on Williams is that he is completing just 41.4% of his passes, but it is clear that the Illini are a much better team than the one that was embarrassed on ESPN in the 33-0 loss @ Rutgers on September 9th, and Williams is a large part of why they are a better team.

The Bobcats have struggled on offense for the past two years under Frank Solich, and senior QB Austen Everson has struggled to get, or keep, the offense moving. Everson has 0 TDs and 4 INTs in the past two games, but did come up with a huge 72-yard run vs. WMU last weekend to seal the 27-20 Ohio victory.

The Ohio program is no stranger to wins over BCS conference teams after knocking off Pittsburgh (16-10) in 2005, Kentucky (28-16) in 2004 and Minnesota (23-17) in 2000. The guys over at Ohio Sports Time seem to have some respect for the Bobcats as theyrank them #5 of the 8 Division I-A programs in the state of Ohio, and I do not have a lot of faith in the Illini. In the Big Ten Fans Illinois football preview for 2006, head sports writer Rob Wludyga pointed out the fact that the Illini defense would have to improve upon their 2005 struggles to stop opposing offenses. While the defense has been slightly better in 2006, add in the 13 turnovers by the Illini offense this season and the Ohio defense's ability to cause turnovers and I see the Bobcats upsetting the home team in a close contest. Final score: Ohio 24 - Illinois 23

Purdue @ Northwestern

Purdue Boilermakers 4-2 (1-1) @ Northwestern Wildcats 2-4 (0-2) - 12 pm

After 4 straight wins over unranked teams to start the season, the Boilermakers come in looking to snap a 2-game losing streak after losses to #12 Notre Dame and #19 Iowa. Northwestern, meanwhile, comes home after two straight road losses in Big Ten play.

Despite 405 yards rushing and a 5.3 ypc for sophomore RB Tyrell Sutton, the Northwestern running back has been rather ineffective in the Wildcats' two Big Ten games. In those games Sutton has just 58 total yards rushing (29 yards/game) after averaging close to 85 yards/game in the 4 non-conference game. The QB position is a main source for the Northwestern offensive struggles in 2006. Mike Kafka and Andrew Brewer combine for 1 TD and 7 INTs on the season and no receiver has reached 200 yards for the season. If the Northwestern offense cannot find a way to improve on their 109th ranked 14.8 points per game, the second have of the 2006 season will be worse than the first half.

Purdue on the other hand is ranked 18th in the nation in scoring with 33.2 points per game and 6th with over 470 yards of offense per game. Sophomore QB Curtis Painter has thrown for 1787 yards and 11 TDs this season and has 3 favorite targets to choose from. Dorien Bryant, Dustin Keller and Selwyn Lymon each have over 400 yards receiving and at least 20 recpetions with Bryants 36 receptions leading the way.

Taking a look at this game on paper, this one has to go to Purdue. The Wildcats have allowed 74 points in two Big Ten games and have not beaten anyone outside of the MAC. I think NU fans should be glad that the 2005 match-up of Northern Illinois and Northwestern was last year as I do not think the Wildcats have the offense to keep up with a good MAC school in 2006. I am picking Purdue in this one, and considering the NU struggles on defense in recent weeks, it should not be a close game.
Final score: Purdue 37 - Northwestern 20

#15 Iowa @ Indiana

Iowa Hawkeyes 5-1 (2-1) @ Indiana Hoosiers 3-3 (1-1) - 12 pm

Iowa seemed to get right back on track last week as they defeated Purdue by a score of 47-17 last week. This week should prove to be a warm-up for the Hawkeyes as they travel to Ann Arbor next weekend to face off with #4 Michigan. Indiana comes into this game with a little momentum after they defeated Illinois on a last second field goal.

Iowa, as we all know by now, is led by senior QB Drew Tate. In Iowa's 5 wins this season, Tate has looked like an all-conference player and it is likely that he will end up being on the all-Big Ten team at season's end. His 1,189 yards passing and 10 TD passes combine with his intangibles to lead the #15 team in the nation. Junior RB Damian Simms is coming off a carrer-best 155 yards rushing as he started in place of injured RB Albert Young last weekend. The Hawkeyes are 32-1 when scoring over 30 points in a game since 2001, and considering the fact that the Hoosiers have held just one opponenet in 2006 under 20 points and have allowed 84 points in two Big Ten games, expect to see Iowa put up a lot of points and win this one easily.
Final score: Iowa 31 - Indiana 13

Minnesota @ #25 Wisconsin

Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-4 (0-3) @ Wisconsin Badgers 5-1 (2-1) - 12 pm

The 116th game in the Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe will be played this weekend between the #25 Wisconsin Badger and the Minnesota Golden Gophers. On papers this looks to be a game Wisconsin should have no trouble with as Minnesota has lost 3 straight to open up Big Ten play while the Badgers have won 2 straight and 5 of 6 on the year. But the balanced Minnesota offense, averaging over 410 yards per game, should make this one interesting.

Senior QB Bryan Cupito leads the Minnesota offensive attack with 1304 yards passing, 11 TDs and just 3 INTs. With two receivers over 340 yard receiving and two RBs over 300 rushing, the Minnesota offense is obviously not a one-dimensonal attack. Unfortunately for Minnesota, the defense seems to be the problem, as it usually is for Glen Mason's teams. In three Big Ten Conference lossses the Golden Gophers defense has allowed 27, 28 and 28 points respectively. Despite a strong offense, teams that allow 28 points per game on defense cannot expect to win on a regular basis.

The Wisconsin offense, like Minnesota, is also a potent and balanced one as they average over 402 yards of offense per game. Senior QB John Stocco leads the Badgers with 1196 yards passing and 8 TDs and his two favorite receivers, Travis Beckum and Paul Hubbard, both have over 300 yards receiving. The emergence of freshman RB PJ Hill, Jr. has been the key to the Badgers' offensive balance in 2006. Hill comes into the game with 847 rushing yards in 6 games and has had 100+ rushing yards in all 5 of the Wisconsin wins. Considering the Minnesota defensive woes, you can epect another big game from Hill.

Both teams have solid, balanced offenses and both are led by senior QBs. While Minnesota pulling an upset would not surprise me in this one, I'll stick with the home team in a game with a lot of points scores.
Final score: Wisconsin 33 - Minnesota 28

#1 Ohio State @ Michigan State

I am running way behind with the preview here, so I will say this. Don't believe all the "Ohio State should beware the upset" hype. Michigan State is not very good, and John L. Smith is even worse. Buckeyes roll.
Final score: Ohio State 41 - Michigan State 17

Michigan @ Penn State

Here's the short preview on this one. Kirk Herbstreit was saying for the past few days that Michigan has a tendency to play not to lose in big road games. He continued to say that the attacking offense of Michigan @ Notre Dame is what they need to win. For once I am going to have to agree with the former Buckeye QB. I think Michigan will come out with Mike Hart and Chad Henne leading the way.
Final score: Michigan 27 - Penn State 17