Big Ten Football Week #3 Preview & Picks

Last week, Ohio State smacked around the (then) second ranked Texas Longhorns. Will Notre Dame, this week’s number two face the same fate against Michigan? Iowa squeaked out a win against a lifeless Syracuse team last week. They’ll need more than what they brought to the table against the Orange to take down the Iowa State Cyclones, led by gunslinger quarterback Bret Meyer.

Illinois vs. Syracuse

September 16, 2006

Illinois comes into this game with one of the top running offenses in college football. Of course, their top running performances have been against Eastern Illinois and Rutgers, but having the 18th best running game out there has to mean something.

This might not bode well for the Orange, who allowed stud Iowa RB Albert Young 73 yards on 18 carries and a game winning touchdown in double overtime. The game may be made even tougher by the momentum following Syracuse. Over the last eleven games, the Orange are 0-11.

I hate to say it, but this game could get ugly… and for once, not against Illinois. The Orange have one of the worst defenses in NCAA Football and an even worse offense (ranked 111th in the nation.) Meanwhile, the Illini will come out looking to put some points on the board after being shutout by Rutgers.

Analysis: The Orange woes continue. Illinois gets the ground game going and doesn’t let up. Illini win: 27-10.

Indiana vs. Southern Illinois

September 16, 2006

Head Coach Terry Hoeppner will miss the next 2-4 weeks of the regular season. Despite missing their leader for this outing, there is no reason for the Hoosiers to not move on to 3-0.

After starting QB Blake Powers missed last week’s game against Ball State, 3rd string QB Kellen Lewis stepped in to erase a 17-point deficit. A quarterback controversy? Probably not, especially with the experience Powers brings to the table.

Instead, expect Indiana’s stellar passing attack to light up Southern Illinois early to get Lewis a few extra reps. James Hardy hasn’t put up the big numbers that he did in his freshmen campaign. He’s due to break out eventually and should be prepared to do so before starting the legit stretch of the Hoosier schedule.

Analysis: Indiana can put up points with, or without, Terry Hoeppner. Expect the game to be out of hand by the end of the third quarter and Kellen Lewis to step in for mop-up duty. Indiana wins: 35-13.

Iowa vs. Iowa State

September 16, 2006

This game could shape up to be the quarterback match-up of the year. Iowa State QB Bret Meyer used this game to break into the national spotlight last season, and lead the Cyclones to second place in the Big XII North.

Iowa QB Drew Tate missed last week’s game against Syracuse with abdominal pains. Such injuries are expected early in the season, but the rest of the Iowa team wound up going into double overtime with an abysmal Syracuse team. The game also seems grim for the Hawkeyes in another way: Iowa State has owned Iowa in this rivalry over the last few years, winning six of the last eight games.

Even with a healthy Tate, Iowa needs to prove that it can get the monkey off of its back. This sort of mental toughness wasn’t shown by going into extra innings against Syracuse.

Analysis: Iowa could have Peyton Manning, Reggie Bush, and Randy Moss playing for them on offense and Ed Reed, Dwight Freeney, and Brian Urlacher on defense. They’d still lose. It’ll be close, but Iowa State has the Hawkeyes’ number. Iowa State wins: 24-20.

Michigan @ Notre Dame

September 16, 2006
This could be the best game of the week.

Notre Dame beat Michigan in the Big House last season, 17-10. Notre Dame, however, never had to face the monster Michigan RB Mike Hart while he was at 100%. Also, Notre Dame simply hasn’t faced a kind of defensive player like LaMarr Woodley, a natural-born sack artist. Heisman-candidate QB Brady Quinn of the Irish has been known to show weakness when his pocket collapses, as it did often early this season against Georgia Tech. Woodley could have a big day.

The Wolverines, however, simply don’t have the tools to defend WR Rhema McKnight and WR Jeff Samardzija. Michigan’s secondary has CB Leon Hall patrolling the air, but one player can’t defend two of the Irish’s biggest playmakers.

Wolverine QB Chad Henne has the big-play receivers which hadn’t developed last year in WR Steve Breaston and WR Mario Manningham, which could be the difference in last year’s disaster and this year’s potential success.

The game in 2005 was a defensive struggle. The 2006 version could become a shoot-out.

Analysis: Lloyd Carr is looking to quiet those questioning his capability of the Wolverine program. The Wolverines have been looking forward to this game all off season and into the 2006 campaign. Their work pays off. Wolverines pull off the upset: 34-27.

Pick the Michigan @ Notre Dame score and win a free hat from BigTen-fans.com!

Michigan State @ Pittsburgh

September 16, 2006

Drew Stanton? Meet H. B. Blades.

LB Blades leads the 16th best overall defense in the country. Michigan State QB Drew Stanton has been known for his talent, five touchdown last week, as well as his inconsistency, losing 5 of the last 6 games last season.

For Stanton to shake his label of unpredictability, he’ll need a big game against Pittsburgh. This might not happen. The Pittsburgh defense has allowed only 28 points in their first two games.

The Panthers also bring in a talented, experienced quarterback in Tyler Palko, coming into this game with the second highest quarterback rating in the NCAA at 214.0. Stanton’s rating is 160.4.

Analysis: Stanton has been known to not take care of business in the big time games. Michigan State’s defense has been known to give up points against good offenses. Pitt wins: 38-28.

Minnesota vs. Temple

September 16, 2006

Minnesota blew out their Week 1 opponent, Kent State, 44-0. In Week 2, the Golden Gophers were blown out just as badly, 17-42. Which team will show up against Temple in Week 3?

Probably the Week 1 Gophers.

Temple boasts the 116th worst defense and the 112th worst offense in the country. They also come in with the 111th worst rushing defense in the nation. The Gophers love to run, and are looking to bust out some yards on the ground after hardly ranking up 100 total yards on the ground last week.

Analysis: Look for the Gophers to get back to form against one of the worst teams out there. Glen Mason loves to run the ball and the Owls of Temple have no idea how to stop anyone while on defense. Gophers win in a blowout: 41-9.

Northwestern vs. Eastern Michigan

September 16, 2006

After grabbing an emotional win in Week 1 at Miami (OH)’s field, the Wildcats were faced with an equally emotion defeat at the hands of Division I-AA New Hampshire last week.

Which team will show up against Eastern Michigan?

Tyrell Sutton is probably hoping the Week 1 team. After running for over 100 yards on only 14 carries, and a touchdown, last week, HB Tyrell Sutton likely hopes that the rest of his team will be able to give him a hand in a victory.

In truth, Sutton could probably carry the load by himself this week. Sutton, one of the Big Ten’s most talented running backs, will face the 109th worst rushing defense this weekend. Expect a big game from him.

On the other side of the ball, however, Northwestern has shown serious problems in its defense. Eastern Michigan has a solid offense, devoid of true playmakers, but filled with talented guys, and that might be all they need to score on Northwestern’s defense.

Analysis: Expect points to be put up, but nothing that the Eagles can bring to the table could possibly stop Tyrell Sutton, especially inspired after an embarrassing loss against a bad team last week. Northwestern wins: 28-20.

MAC fan site VanDelay Sports picks Northwestern vs. EMU

Ohio State vs. Cincinnati

September 16, 2006

Defensive-minded Head Coach Mark Dantonio of Cincinnati has a talented bunch of guys  to play against opposing offenses in the Big East. His offense is mediocre, but features a magical passing attack, with sophomore QB Dustin Grutza at the helm.

His team, built for Big East play, simply can’t keep up with the number one team in the country. It can’t run with Buckeyes WR Teddy Ginn and WR Anthony Gonzalez. It can’t cover Buckeye QB Troy Smith. It can’t score on OSU LB James Laurinatis and a defense looking to establish itself as one of Buckeye lore.

What will likely save the Bearcats from a disastrous trip up I-71 and into Columbus is Dantonio’s close friendship with Buckeye Head Coach Jim Tressel. Dantonio spent several years as a defensive coordinator for Tressel at Ohio State, and was the mastermind of the National Championship winning defense of the 2002 team. Tressel is a conservative coach and won’t be looking to wipe out his friend. It’s quite impossible for Cincinnati to get anything more than what Ohio State gives them.

Analysis: Tressel is a moderate coach who won’t be looking to blow out his friend. The Bearcats, really, are at Tressel’s mercy, anyway. Ohio State wins easily: 34-14.

Penn State vs. Youngstown State

September 16, 2006

The Nittany Lions were blown out last week against Notre Dame. Who didn’t see that one coming? Penn State’s young secondary was incapable of covering the likes of Notre Dame’s nuclear offense. Penn State QB Anthony Morelli took strides toward taking his places as the leader of the team, but in the end, turned out to be only average with one touchdown and one interception.

Penn State needs a tune-up game against a I-AA opponent to right its ship.

Penn State gave up two critical fumbles in key moments to give the Irish 14 points. Look for the name of their game against the Penguins to be “execution.” Or “fundamentals.”

Expected to win easily, PSU probably will, but the team needs to focus in order to reach the caliber it attained last season.

Analysis: Penn State wins. They need a confidence boost after last week. The game isn’t as lopsided as it could be. Paterno needs to instill stronger fundamentals with his young team. PSU victory: 28-7.

Purdue vs. Ball State

September 16, 2006

Purdue WR Dorien Bryant, so far the best receiver in the Big Ten, goes up against the 97th ranked defense in the country. Everyone knows what Purdue Coach Joe Tiller likes to do on offense. Expect a big game in the air for the Boilermakers.

In fact, the whole game could turn into an air war.

The Cardinals enter this game with a highly ranked pass offense to oppose Purdue’s 112th ranked pass defense. In fact, QB Joey Lynch of Ball State comes into the game with a 152.5 QB Rating. Joe Tiller is known for his passing attack and getting big numbers from his quarterback. Purdue QB Curtis Painters comes in with significantly fewer numbers than his match on the Cardinals team. His rating is 125.1.

Quite frankly, Ball State’s defense couldn’t stop a newborn baby, and Purdue’s defense couldn’t stop the same baby’s great-grandmother. This game will be a shoot out and both teams have the tools to put big scores on the board.

Analysis: The Cardinals can put up points, but the Boilermakers can put up more. Purdue pulls out a W: 45-35.

MAC fan site VanDelay Sports picks Purdue vs. Ball State

Wisconsin vs. San Diego State

September 16, 2006

After putting up 34 and 35 points against Bowling Green and Western Illinois, respectively, is there any reason to think that this trend won’t continue against the Aztecs of San Diego State?

UTEP QB Jordan Palmer, brother of Cincinnati Bengal’s All-Pro signal caller, was intercepted three times in a row, four times over the course of the night.

Palmer comes in with a bit of a better resume than Wisconsin QB John Stocco. Also going against Wisconsin’s hope for victory, Wisconsin’s non-stellar running game. The Badgers, a team who prided themselves as a run-first team for years, hasn’t gotten the ground game going all season. In fact, they haven’t really gotten the passing game going either.

And somehow, they’re putting up 34 and 35 points a game.