Big Ten Football Week #4 Preview & Picks

Week Three of the NCAA Football season saw yet another Big Ten team topple
the second ranked team in the nation. Wide receiver Mario Manningham
excelled in Michigan's 47-21 waxing of Notre Dame. This weekend's slate of
games opens up the Big Ten season. Key match-ups between Penn State and Ohio
State, Purdue and Minnesota, and Michigan and Wisconsin will shape the look
of the conference early.

Illinois vs. Iowa

September 23, 2006

A victory against the Iowa State Cyclones last week proved that QB Drew Tate and the Iowa Hawkeyes are a legit team. Tate led the offense back from a 14-3 deficit in the 2nd quarter and on to a 27-17 defeat of the Hawkeyes' biggest rivals. Worries over whether Tate would find himself capable of leading the offense after missing a game with an abdominal strain were silenced after Tate threw his third touchdown at the beginning of the third quarter. There are no questions about anything, Tate is one of the best quarterbacks, not only in the Big Ten, but in the country.

Illinois, meanwhile, found itself in a rut against a horrific Syracuse Orange team, falling handily and never really putting up much of a fight. The Orange, who at the time boasted one of the worst offenses in the country, ran the score all the way up to 31-7 before the Fighting Illini, led by second string QB Juice Williams, fired back to make the loss a bit less embarrassing.

Illinois's strength is in its running game and offensive line and, unfortunately for them, stopping the run happens to fall under Iowa's defensive strength, giving up only 83 yards per game. There is no way for Illinois to match Iowa's output in the running game.

Analysis: This game is over with before the first half. In fact, this game is over with the moment Drew Tate and the Hawkeyes step off of the bus. Iowa wins big: 41-10.

Indiana vs. Connecticut

September 23, 2006

Kellen Lewis's second shot as the starting quarterback of the Indiana Hoosier's wasn't nearly as successful as his first outing. The loss, however, wasn't the quarterback's fault, as the Hoosier defense gave up 28 second half points, including a 21 point run, to Division I-AA team Southern Illinois. Further, Indiana couldn't even get its running game going against a noticeable less-skilled opponent, yielding only 76 rushing yards.

To be fair, last week's loss isn't as bad as it seems on paper. Indiana played without top wideout James Hardy (suspended) and will continue to play without the gamebreaker this week. Head Coach Terry Hoepnner, however, is expected to return to his position as the captain of the Hoosier ship against Connecticut this week. The funk Indiana football was in against Southern Illinois could continue this week.

Despite losing to Wake Forest last week, Connecticut is a good team. They out rushed, out passed, and executed better third down than the Deacons. Indiana's "Bend But Not Break" defense might find itself breaking more and more frequently this season, including this week. Keep your eyes peeled for Connecticut RB Terry Caulley. He's the kind of player who can turn 2nd and five on his own 45 into a score from long distance.

Analysis: Indiana needs to right their ship and this may not be the game to do it. Their defense allowed almost 400 yards against a Division I-AA opponent last week and there are no valid excuses for such lousy performance. Connecticut wins: 31-14.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin

September 23, 2006

The Wisconsin Badger went only 7-17 third down and 0-3 on fourth down against the hapless San Diego State Aztecs last week, ending several potential scoring drives and leaving the team with only 14 points in a game they clearly dominated. That kind of failure in execution will not be acceptable in a game against Michigan.

Keep an eye on: Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill. The freshman has 5 touchdowns and almost 500 yards rushing only three games into the season.

The Wolverines come into this game on the heels of a 47-21 spanking of the (formerly) second ranked team in the country. They also enter with the number one rushing defense in the country, a factor which will be needed to bottle up the Wisconsin running attack. In fact, this whole game shapes up like a defensive struggle. Wisconsin and Michigan come into this game with two of the best defenses in the land: ranked 9th and 12th respectively. The Badgers even have the tools to handle Michigan QB Chad Henne and the deadly-duo of wideouts Steve Breaston and Mario Manningham at his disposal.

Analysis: Is Chad Henne a fourth-quarter quarterback? This game could be decided by a big play on either side, late in the game, and so far, although having huge numbers, Henne isn't the guy you want on your team with the game on the line, ninety seconds left, and needing to drive 80 yards against an excellent defense. A few plays early, however, will probably bail him out of this rut. Expect a lot of points early, and then a defensive struggle in the second half. Michigan wins: 28-21.

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Michigan State @ Notre Dame

September 23, 2006

The Irish were embarrassed against Michigan last week. Can the little cousins out of East Lansing ride the Wolverines' coat-tails to hand Notre Dame their second loss in a row?

Ehh, probably not.

Michigan State WR Matt Trannon had a huge game two weeks ago against Eastern Michigan and was named the Offensive Player of the Week in the Big Ten with 14 receptions, 145 yards, and two scores. Last week, against Pitt, Trannon had one reception for 5 yards and no touchdowns. Stats like that mean the quarterback is doing most of the work. And a talent quarterback is what Michigan State's Drew Stanton is. Stanton could put up numbers playing against anyone.

Unfortunately for him, the Michigan State defense bleeds yardage. And, despite a poor performance last week, the Irish still have (former) Heisman Trophy frontrunner QB Brady Quinn at the helm with deadly weapons, all looking for redemption after receiving a waxing by the Michigan defense that swallowed it last week.

Analysis: Ultra-high scoring game. In the unlikely event that Michigan State pulls out a victory, put Stanton's name at the top of the Heisman board. Until then, Notre Dame wins: 45-38.

Purdue vs. Minnesota

September 23, 2006

Call Purdue RB Korey Sheets the Touchdown Machine. So far this season, Sheets has already found his way into the endzone 10 times, more than anyone else in the country. Minnesota holds the 77th worst rushing defense in the country.

On top of that, the Gophers have shown a propensity toward crumbling when playing against teams that score points. Against Cal, in Week 2, Minnesota gave up 42 points. Or do they really have that problem? The other two games the Gophers have shown up for this season, against the hapless Kent State and do-nothing Temple, they liquified their opponents by a combined score of 126-0.

No one really knows what kind of team Glen Mason has. I know that I say this every week, but Minnesota needs an identity in the post-Barber/Maroney days. When all is said and done, I expect Minnesota to simply be a middle of the road Big Ten team playing Purdue, another middle of the roader. Minnesota's specialty is running the ball. Purdue's is passing it. Who will win?

Analysis: Both teams are playing a good team to point points on. Purdue's defense practically hands points out to opposing offenses, while Minnesota simply gives them up. The Gophers make a play on defense late and win the game. Minnesota wins: 34-30.

Northwestern @ Nevada

September 23, 2006

Speaking of missing identity, who the heck is Northwestern? After years of inching closer and closer to climbing out of the basement of the Big Ten, the Wildcats seem to be in reverse. Despite having star RB Tyrell Sutton playing for them, the Wildcats have the 86th ranked offense in the league. The team managed only 14 points (in a win) last week against MAC Cellar-Dweller's Eastern Michigan.

The Nevada Wolf Pack seems to be the very definition of a middle of the road team, coming in with the 64th ranked offense and the 65th ranked defense in the country. This could be a defining game for Northwestern.

The Wildcats need a measuring stick as to where they are under new Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald. Out of 119 teams, Nevada seems to be right in the middle of the pack. Is Northwestern a sheep or a wolf?

Keep an eye on: Sutton. He's been due for a big game.

Analysis: Northwestern seems to have the tools for victory. Nevada isn't going to score any points, but Northwestern isn't going to stop anyone, either. ‘Western can put them up, and Nevada doesn't seem to be that good at stopping good offenses either (losing games against Arizona and Fresno State, two teams with power-packed offenses) Northwestern puts up the points and wins: 28-17.

Penn State @ Ohio State

September 23, 2006

"Revenge is a dish best served cold."

Whoever coined that phrase must have had this game in mind. Ohio State was removed from National and Big Ten Title contention after a 17-10 loss at Happy Valley last season. The Bucks were welcomed into the stadium by an unforgettable sea of white: thousands of Nittany Lions fans armed with white t-shirts whited-out the Valley.

All week long, Bucks Head Coach Jim Tressel has preached his intention to treat this "rematch" in the same manner as any other game. The players, however, have been seeking to hand a similar fate to their dream killers last season. So have the fans.

The Nittany Lions, however, has shown an inability to stop anyone through the air. Penn State's loss of its entire star-studded secondary to graduation takes it toll and has left the Lion's with the 77th ranked Pass Defense in the country. This could be a problem when trying to cover Heisman candidate WR Teddy Ginn Jr. and teammate Anthony Gonzalez of the Buckeyes.

In the same vein, that of a weakened PSU defense, Paul Pozluzny, last year's Defensive Player of the year, has been limited to only 27 combined tackles this year, effectively rendering him as harmless as any other middle of the road linebacker.

At the same time, last year's Freshman of the Year, WR Derrick Williams seems to have fallen to a second receiver position in the offense and hasn't done anything special this season.

This isn't a game to be decided by the question "Who?" Instead, it will be"By how much?"